Mortgage Rates: Lowest in Nearly a Year
Mortgage rates have dropped to their lowest point since October 2024, now averaging around 6.5%. This decline has sparked renewed optimism among buyers and homeowners exploring refinancing. However, rates remain high compared to the historic lows of just a few years ago, when many secured mortgages at 3% or less.
The Federal Reserve’s upcoming decision on interest rates is expected to influence the next move. The CME FedWatch tool recently showed an 88% chance of a 25-basis-point cut and roughly a 12% chance of a larger 50-point cut. While Fed rate cuts do not directly translate into lower mortgage rates, they typically influence broader financial markets, including the 10-year Treasury yield – a key driver of mortgage pricing.
With the 10-year Treasury recently trending down to 4.08%, mortgage rates could fall further, potentially dipping toward 6.375% if the trend continues. This would provide some relief for buyers navigating high housing costs.
Affordability Pressures Remain
Housing affordability continues to be a challenge. Three factors drive affordability: household income, interest rates, and home prices. While incomes in Georgia have grown modestly in recent years, they have not kept pace with rising home values. In 2022, wages increased by an average of 6.7%, but home prices surged 16.7%. This gap left many buyers unable to keep up.
More recently, wages have inched ahead of home price growth as Atlanta values have flattened or declined slightly in some counties. This shift helps close the affordability gap, but progress is slow. Without more significant downward pressure on rates or prices, affordability will remain a hurdle for many households.
Atlanta Home Prices: A Market Split
Across greater Atlanta, the median home price has held steady at $425,000 for a full year. Average prices ticked slightly higher in August, reaching about $531,530. This stability contrasts with the sharp appreciation of prior years and suggests the market is reaching a plateau.
By County:
- Forsyth County: Highest median at $630,000, still inching upward.
- Cherokee and Cobb Counties: Modest increases year-over-year.
- Metro Atlanta overall: Flat at $425,000.
- Rockdale and Henry Counties: Prices trending downward, creating buyer opportunities.
Inventory and Supply Trends
New listings are following seasonal patterns, declining as the school year begins. Compared to prior years, 2025 levels are below 2022 and 2024, though slightly above 2023. Active inventory peaked near 22,000 listings earlier in the summer but has since eased to about 21,000.
Key Inventory Shifts:
- Supply remains elevated versus last year.
- Pending sales are down significantly from 2022–2024 levels.
- Closed transactions are lagging, signaling weaker demand.
- Failed listings (expired or withdrawn) are spiking, reflecting seller struggles.
Market Balance: Shifting Toward Buyers
The ratio of active listings to closed sales has widened from 1:1 two years ago to roughly 6:1 today. Metro Atlanta now sits at about four months of supply, up from 2.7 last year. While this suggests a balanced market overall, several counties are leaning toward buyer-friendly conditions:
- Henry County: Already balanced, trending into buyer market territory.
- Rockdale & Fayette Counties: Moving upward toward balance.
- Fulton County: Approaching balance, particularly in expensive submarkets.
- Cobb, Gwinnett, Cherokee: Still stronger, maintaining relative seller advantages.
Days on Market Continue to Rise
Homes are taking longer to sell across the metro. Henry County averages about 70 cumulative days on market, while Rockdale, Paulding, and parts of Fulton also show extended timelines. Even in higher-demand counties like Forsyth, average market time has increased sharply year-over-year.
Sale-to-List Ratios Declining
The percentage of asking price sellers receive has slipped across the board:
- Metro average: ~96.2%.
- Clayton County: ~94.3%.
- Fulton & DeKalb Counties: Mid-95% range.
- Cobb & Gwinnett Counties: Above the metro baseline, still holding strong.
Price Reductions Widespread Across Metro Atlanta
Nearly half of all active listings have been reduced at least once. The average cut is 5.2%, with higher reductions in some areas:
- Forsyth County: 6.8% average cut, with more than half of listings adjusted.
- Cobb County: 8.2% average cut, among the steepest in the region.
Price reductions are especially common in the $500,000–$600,000 range, where nearly half of listings have been discounted.
Seller Concessions on the Rise
Sellers are increasingly offering closing cost assistance to secure deals:
- 68% of transactions now include concessions.
- Average contribution: $8,500, up from $7,300 last year and $6,500 two years ago.
- At this pace, concessions could approach $10,000 per deal in 2026.
Showings and Buyer Activity
Showing traffic is up compared to last year in many price ranges but still below 2023 levels. Price migration explains much of this shift as homes that were $300,000–$400,000 two years ago now fall in higher brackets.
By County:
- Strongest activity: Cobb, DeKalb, Fulton, Gwinnett.
- Solid performance: Cherokee and Forsyth.
- Weakening: Fulton showings are trending down, reflecting affordability issues.
Pending Ratios Highlight Opportunities
The metro pending ratio averages just 14%, meaning only one in eight homes goes under contract.
- Fulton County: ~11%, one in nine homes.
- Henry County: ~10%, one in ten homes—softer market with buyer leverage.
- Cobb County: ~17%, stronger than average.
- Bartow & Paulding Counties: Relatively strong compared to supply.
Key Takeaways for Buyers
- Leverage falling mortgage rates and motivated sellers.
- Explore softening counties like Henry, Rockdale, and Clayton.
- Expect widespread price reductions and concessions.
- Move strategically before lower rates invite renewed competition.
Key Takeaways for Sellers
- Price homes competitively to avoid long market times.
- Maximize presentation with professional marketing and staging.
- Prepare to negotiate—buyers now expect concessions.
- Capitalize on stronger submarkets like Cobb, Gwinnett, and Cherokee.
The Atlanta housing market is shifting. Mortgage rates are easing, but affordability remains stretched. Inventory is high, sales activity is lagging, and concessions are rising. Buyers willing to act strategically can find strong opportunities, while sellers must adjust pricing and strategy to secure results.
